The Possible Worlds Tree

In how many of our futures does humanity survive this century?

Over the next century, humanity could flourish or it could experience a global catatastrophe. It could even go extinct.

But we are not doomed. Like gardeners, we can prune the branches of our future. We can reduce our existential risks until every path leads to survival or even flourishing.

This tree is built from the prediction platform Metaculus's Ragnarok series. It is updated every night (last: Mon Aug 15 2022). It tracks predictions concerning global catastrophes and (near-)extinction events.

If you'd like to learn more about existential risk, see our FAQ.

Other predictions can be found in our collection.

To make your own prediction, try our Predict page.